Ethereum has been following the price of Bitcoin for a while. Now, even if this is not a bad trajectory per se, it is not that good either. As bitcoin is testing the crucial $ 42K mark at press time, it’s high time for the best altcoin on the market to register significant gains as well.
What does the price say?
Over the past 11 days, Ethereum has recorded nearly 40% growth, slightly better than BTC. Now, even though ETH is rallying in chats and its last 11 candles are closing in the green zone, it needs to test the $ 2,570 resistance to show real strength.
It is also notable that ETH closed above its 1D MA50 (blue trendline) for the first time since the May correction. Following the COVID collapse in March 2020, this was an early indicator of an upcoming rally. It is noteworthy that throughout the May rally, the MA50 acted as a support for the price, and the relative strength index blinked overbought for ETH, the main indicator.
On the other hand, trader and analyst Scott Melker recently pointed out that there seems to be a bearish RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart. However, the price of ETH continues to rise.
On the ETH / BTC chart, Melker noted that there was a slight rebound as bitcoin recovered. According to the analyst, this meant that if he continued to consolidate here, there would be a real rise in the value of altcoins.
Further, by looking at Ethereum Realized Volatility and Implied Volatility, it can be assumed that there were no significant movements. It formed a parabolic curve reflecting the July 29 price increase. However, this happened the very next day.
Another move north from the Implied Volatility side could be a good signal for a rally and is worth noting.
Will there be another ATH by the end of the year?
A recent post on TradingView highlighted the Fibonacci Channel on Ethereum price action since March 2020. Here the RSI acted as a rough indicator of price breakouts.
It showed that price tends to break above the 1D MA50 as it has an approximate breakout level of 60.00. After breaking through this level, it took 132, 137 or 70 ETH to reach the next Fibonacci top (which is over $ 14,000).
You can also notice that the tops are progressive, one level higher each time. First 1.0, then 1.5, and the last May – 2.0 Fib.
By the same token, it can be assumed that the next high will be at the level of 2.5 or higher.
However, it is worth noting
“… Definitely seems like a very high level for the price of ETH at print time, especially if it is technically ‘necessary’ to hit in 137 days.”
However, this is not impossible, especially when you look at the price break above the 50-day SMA and the RSI rise.